External factors
The talks are a product of foreign pressure exerted on the two sides. UK government put huge effort to ensure all sides to attend London Conference. Thereby, it was not an initiative from Somaliland and Somalia. Nevertheless, both parties wanted to benefit from the talks. President Silaanyo made many pledges for the people in his campaigns. Translating his pledges into a reality required money. Somaliland government is very obsessed getting a better share the foreign aid allocated for Somalia and attracting foreign investment. Somalia in its part wants to depict that it is making all efforts possible to reinstate the integrated country on track and united.
Several countries are involved in the facilitation and give avenues to the parties. The hosting countries of Turkey, United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates and Djibouti do not have a common interest over the dialogue. The absence of clearly mandated facilitating country provides room conflicting external interventions. Thus the external interventions complicate the matter and contribute further confusion.
Mismanaging the talks
The meetings are disorganized, disoriented and lack vision and commitment. Neither Somaliland nor Somalia is willing to change the status quo. The meetings do not have a prior set and agreed agendas. The members of the delegates, particularly from Somaliland, are not fixed and new faces join every meeting. There is no timeframe for future meetings and follow up mechanism is not established. Meetings are scheduled incoherently.
Lack of implementation
The agreements were never implemented. For instance, establishment of secretariat was agreed. It has never been materialized. Somalia violated many occasions the terms of the agreements. Communiqué issued 9th July 2013 by Somaliland and Somalia states that the parties “agreed to the return of the air traffic management from the UN and decided to establish a joint control body that is based in Hargeisa”[vii] Somalia unilaterally reached agreement with the UN to return the air traffic management to Somalia and Mogadishu as the base. These violations discredit the dialogue.
Although the parties agreed to refrain from anything that would “undermine the continuation of the talks”[viii], Somalia frequently airs inflammatory remarks that are inconsistent and prejudicial to the agreements.
Domestic pressure
There is a democratic system in Somaliland where transparency is required from the government. The delegations were expected to publicly explain the outcome of the talks. The government to ease the domestic pressure interprets the agreements in a manner that pleases the electorate. This rhetoric and propaganda is mainly aimed to confront those who oppose the talks. Nonetheless, this has been a threat to the continuation of the dialogue.
The tenure of Somaliland president will lapse July this year. He is expected to run for re-election. Hence, the public opinion matters most. Therefore, Somaliland government took firmer position. The fruitfulness of the talks ignites rejection. The public view is very crucial. The voters are inclining to oppose the unproductive and prolonged dialogue. Initially, the opposition parties were part of the delegations, but they were later on excluded. Opposition parties started to call on the government to renounce the dialogues.
The government of Somaliland does not have a power and mandate to compromise Somaliland’s claim of independence. The independence of Somaliland is grounded on constitution approved by the people of Somaliland in 97%. It is the constitution that provides the president the legality to rule. Therefore, Somaliland delegates know that they have limits. According to Somaliland constitution and Penal Code, any attempt to subject Somaliland under foreign state or to diminish its independence is defined as treason and is punishable to death.[ix]
Mogadishu faces internal challenges mainly posed by the fact that it does not control much of its territories. Thus, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud realizes his position and is not willing to seem lenient for Somaliland’s cause. The recurrent political crisis in Mogadishu also negatively impacts the dialogues. The government of Somalia contends that the objective of the talks is to restore the territorial integrity and unity of Somali Republic. Therefore, it cannot act contrary to that claim.
Elections are expected to happen in Somalia in 2016 as the term of the parliament and the government will expire. Somalian leadership cannot take the risk of being accused dividing the nation in the upcoming election.
Conclusion
The dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia is unproductive and is structured to yield no results. It is a waste of time and resources. Both sides do not want the dialogue to succeed. Somaliland government cannot take decision other than separation and Somalia government is not willing to accept sovereign and independent Somaliland. Recommendations To the government of Somaliland.
Wriitten By: Abdirahman Zaied Farah (Jeesto).
Diplomatic Annalysis
Gabiley/Somaliland.